Thursday, September 22, 2005

***Rita Update***



Ha! Like this is a remotely professional post!

But thanks to the people at Hurricane City, I do have a read out of the speed and location of the storm.

445
WTNT33 KNHC 221454
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2005
...RITA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BUT FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL AS
A DANGEROUS HURRICANE...
...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED...

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM PORT
O'CONNOR TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM
SOUTH OF PORT O'CONNOR TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA
EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM
NORTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE MOUTH OF THE
PEARL RIVER INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH
OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS...AND FOR THE NORTHEASTERN
COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE RIO GRANDE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 25.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.7 WEST OR ABOUT 460 MILES...740
KM...SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 445 MILES...715 KM...
SOUTHEAST OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 165 MPH...270
KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT RITA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AN EXTREMELY
DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 185 MILES...295 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 907 MB...26.78 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA.
TIDES IN THOSE AREAS WILL INCREASE UP TO 3 TO 4 FEET AND BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES...AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE
SOME COASTAL FLOODING.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM 15
INCH TOTAL ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PATH OF RITA PARTICULARLY OVER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA. IN ADDITION...RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA
INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS. BASED ON THE FORECAST TRACK...RAINFALL
TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 25 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE AFTER RITA MOVES INLAND.
REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...25.4 N... 88.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 907 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM
CDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

$$

Okay...to sum up....at the moment Rita (or her leading edge, I think) is 460 odd miles south of Galveston and there's a tropical storm watch in place from New Orleans to the Rio Grande-from Louisiana to the Mexian border.

Speed is incredibly slow at c.12 mp/h and air pressure is very low at 907mb with a hurricane surge of 20 feet.

And finally, wind speeds have dropped from 170-165 mp/h, so I assume she'll be downgraded once she hits land. However if things stay the way they are, Rita will be the first Category 5 to hit the mainland US since Andrew in 1992.

At the moment she's barreling towards Mexico but is turning slowly NW...

This will be very interesting to watch (from the comfort of Ireland!), as she is predicted to drop 3 inches of rain in New Orleans and Lake Ponchatrain, which the Army Corp of Engineers say is enough to overpower the levees.

So at a wild guess she makes landfall by midnight on Friday?

2 Comments:

Blogger Robin said...

not 3inches... they're suggesting 38cm!! Thats over 32inches!

8:25 AM  
Blogger FJR said...

Ah now Toni I beg to differ.

"RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA"

8:32 AM  

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